It's About Context...
It’s hard for many to believe that the economic recovery is now over six years old. GDP is steadily improving. And, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports that our economy is larger than it has ever been.
When we look at the economy from an investor's perspective only two things come to mind: stocks and interest rates.
During extended bull markets (e.g., 1987-2000 and 2009-date), money managers appear to make money hand over fist. Even average “do-it-yourself” investors can do well. These types of bull markets support the adage that a rising tide lifts all boats.
However, as Warren Buffet wrote in 2001, ”…you only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out.”
The continued annual rise of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 Index and NASDAQ highlights the dynamic nature of the U.S. economy. The U.S. market goes from near collapse in 2008 to record highs in 2015.
People are in disbelief about the ascent of the stock market. And, this leads us to the key question: Are we in bubble territory?
Several times a week for the last three or four years, I’ve heard too many people commenting that we’re in a market bubble and headed for a correction.
While I agree there will be a market correction at some point—just like there have been for hundreds of years, no one knows for sure when it’s going to happen.
For anyone who listened to the naysayers’ rantings about a bubble and pulled money out of the markets, they’ve missed out on one of the greatest bull markets in U.S. history.
The downsizing that’s occurring at Keysight has created a great deal of uncertainty for affected employees. One of the immediate responses voiced by terminated employees was, “I’m going to sell all of my [Keysight] stock!”
This was an emotional response from some very rational, analytical people. Anger was the culprit and a natural human response.
I’ve seen too many engineers and other people make financial mistakes and regrettable decisions made from a place of fear, anger, disappointment or disbelief.