Welcome to the 'No-Guilt' blog!
People come to here because they want to build financial confidence and take meaningful action. We provide the context for those things that affect your financial health. Our goal is to help you live in the 'No-Guilt Zone'.

Top Sector Picks of 2015 - Yearend Review

In January 2015, I wrote about the 2015 Sector Predictions made by the highest profile investment strategists on Wall Street.  Here is a chart of their collective predictions as published in Barron’s on December 15, 2015.  (A ‘+’ is a pick and a ‘-’ a pan.  For 2015, they predicted information technology (+8) would be the top performer and utilities (-7) the worst).


Now let’s see how these strategists did collectively with their 2015 predictions.

The chart below shows the actual sector performance for 2015 (the red bars) along with what the strategists predicted collectively.
S&P 500 Sector Returns for 2015

The experts again missed more of their sector picks than they got right!

Of the sectors they liked, they were only right on technology (+8). Energy (+2) was a total disaster and both financials (+6) and industrials (+3) trailed the S&P 500.

Of the sectors they didn’t like, consumer discretionary (0), healthcare (-1) and consumer staples (-3) were top-performers.

Since Barron’s began surveying these high profile strategists in 2007, there continues to be no solid evidence that any single strategist or collective can consistently make winning sector calls.

I maintain my assertion that if reputable fund companies and investment managers kept track of their annual predictions and shared them publicly, they would lose credibility and a lot of customers.

In the near future, I will review forecast various economist and strategists made about interests and other interesting things so we can see how well they’ve done.


Rising Retiree Medical Expenses and Personal Savin...
Top Stock Picks of 2015 - Yearend Review


No comments made yet. Be the first to submit a comment

Find your financial balance.

Our Financial Self-evaluation Tool helps you identify your financial blindspots and increase your financial power.

Download a free financial self-evaluation


Find balance in your Financial Life

Download our Financial Wheel of Life Self-Evaluation