In January 2015, I blogged about Top Stock Picks for 2015. I provided an update in June 2016. This is the update based on yearend values.
So, how did the analysts and managers do in 2015?
Below are the prices as of December 31, 2014 and December 31, 2015. An β indicates a rise in price since the beginning of the year. A β shows a decline in price since the beginning of the year.
| Barron's - Our 10 Favorite Stocks for 2015 | |||||||||
|
Company |
Ticker |
Price on 12-31-14 |
Price on 12-31-15 |
Price Change % |
|||||
| General Motors | GM | $34.91 | $34.01 | -2.6% | β | ||||
| Bank of America | BAC | $17.89 | $16.83 | -5.9% | β | ||||
| Boeing | BA | $129.98 | $144.59 | 11.2% | β | ||||
| Micron Technology | MU | $35.01 | $14.16 | -59.6% | ββ | ||||
| American Airlines | AAL | $53.63 | $42.35 | -21.0% | β | ||||
| GOOGL | $530.66 | $778.01 | 46.6% | ββ | |||||
| Royal Caribbean Cruises | RCL | $82.43 | $101.21 | 22.8% | β | ||||
| Fluor | FLR | $60.63 | $47.22 | -22.1% | β | ||||
| Macyβs | M | $65.75 | $34.98 | -46.8% | ββ | ||||
| Gilead Sciences | GILD | $94.26 | $101.19 | 7.4% | β | ||||
| Forbes - 15 Great Stocks For 2015 | |||||||||
| Rogers Communications | RCI | $38.86 | $34.46 | -11.3% | β | ||||
| FirstMerit Corp. | FMER | $18.89 | $18.65 | -1.3% | β | ||||
| Kellogg | K | $65.44 | $72.27 | 10.4% | β | ||||
| SpartanNash | SPTN | $26.14 | $21.64 | -17.2% | β | ||||
| Merge Healthcare | MRGE | $3.56 | acquired by IBM on 10-13-2015 | ||||||
| American Vanguard | AVD | $11.62 | $14.01 | 20.6% | β | ||||
| Blackstone/GSO Senior Floating Rate Term Fund | BSL | $16.74 | $14.85 | -11.3% | β | ||||
| Yamana Gold | AUY | $4.02 | $1.86 | -53.7% | ββ | ||||
| Coach | COH | $37.56 | $32.73 | -12.9% | β | ||||
| Diplomat Pharmacy | DPLO | $27.37 | $34.22 | 25.0% | β | ||||
| Zeltiq Aesthetics | ZLTQ | $27.91 | $28.53 | 2.2% | β | ||||
| Denny's | DENN | $10.31 | $9.83 | -4.7% | β | ||||
| Concurrent Computer | CCUR | $7.09 | $4.95 | -30.2% | β | ||||
| Foot Locker | FL | $56.18 | $65.09 | 15.9% | β | ||||
| Credit Acceptance Corp. | CACC | $136.41 | $214.02 | 56.9% | ββ | ||||
| Money Magazine - 12 Great Stocks for 2015: | |||||||||
| Bank of America | BAC | $17.89 | $16.83 | -5.9% | β | ||||
| Oracle | ORCL | $44.97 | $36.53 | -18.8% | β | ||||
| Apache | APA | $62.67 | $44.47 | -29.0% | β | ||||
| Marriott Vacations Worldwide | VAC | $74.54 | $56.95 | -23.6% | β | ||||
| Brinker International | EAT | $58.69 | $47.95 | -18.3% | β | ||||
| Toro | TTC | $63.81 | $73.07 | 14.5% | β | ||||
| Hospira | HSP | $61.25 | acquired by Pfizer on 9-3-2015 | ||||||
| Akamamai Technologies | AKAM | $62.96 | $52.63 | -16.4% | β | ||||
| Inogen | INGN | $31.37 | $40.09 | 27.8% | β | ||||
| West Marine | WMAR | $12.92 | $8.49 | -34.3% | β | ||||
| Identiv | INVE | $13.89 | $1.99 | -85.7% | ββ | ||||
| RTI International Metals | RTI | $25.26 | acquired by Alcoa on 7-23-2015 | ||||||
A review of the results shows a lot of red ink.
There were some stellar performance on the upside, for example both Credit Acceptance Corp (CCAC) was up 56.9% and Google (GOOGL) was up 46.6%
But, there were some really big losers as well. For example, Micron Technology (MU) was down 59.6% and Identiv (INVE) was down 85.7%.
The individual results for the stock picks for 2015 were terrible overall.
In fact, 19 leading Wall Street market strategists polled by Bloomberg entering 2015 predicted a rising US stock market for last year. Thatβs not what we got. In 2014, 75% of the stocks in the S&P 500 rose. In 2015, only 44% of them rose.
And the worst part about these predictions and results is that we see this happen year after year.
Come December and January publications and various media will publish their top picks and investments for the year ahead. Wash, rinse, repeat.
The hardcore results shows us again and again, we can never know for sure how the markets are going to do or what stocks are going to be hot or not.
I may blog about 2016 predictions later, but for now, I think the evidence is clear: Picking stocks based on some publication or βguruβ could be very damaging to your long-term financial success
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